An analysis of the alternative and competing theories of intelligence

Willard Zangwill. When the matrix shows that a given hypothesis is probable or unlikely, you may disagree.

thurstone theory of intelligence

They refer to all the factors that have an impact on your judgments about the hypotheses. As discussed in Chapter 4, "Strategies for Analytical Judgment," and under Step 5 below, you should seek evidence that disproves hypotheses. The analytical effectiveness of this procedure becomes apparent when considering the Indian nuclear weapons testing in That leaves anywhere from a percent to 45 percent possibility that a decision based on your judgment will be based on faulty assumptions and will turn out wrong.

Psychometric theories of intelligence

Report conclusions. The box below contains a step-by-step outline of the ACH process. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected. Step 2 Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. Thurstone — offered a differing theory of intelligence. When you do identify items that are highly diagnostic, these should drive your judgment. Adding a scale to show the ease with which items of evidence could be concealed, manipulated, or faked, or the extent to which one party might have an incentive to do so. By giving the ACH structure, the analyst is able to give a nuanced estimate. In examining the matrix, look at the minuses, or whatever other notation you used to indicate evidence that may be inconsistent with a hypothesis. Analysis of competing hypotheses involves seeking evidence to refute hypotheses. The procedure for Step 3 is to take the hypotheses from Step 1 and the evidence and arguments from Step 2 and put this information into a matrix format, with the hypotheses across the top and evidence and arguments down the side. The analyst also identifies milestones in the process that can serve as indicators in future analyses. Are any of the sources known to the authorities in the foreign country? Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ACH, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions.

The evidence in the matrix and how it is evaluated are hypothetical, fabricated for the purpose of providing a plausible example of the procedure.

Subsequent discussion can then focus productively on the ultimate source of the differences.

An analysis of the alternative and competing theories of intelligence

In Step 3, you worked across the matrix, focusing on a single item of evidence or argument and examining how it relates to each hypothesis. Step 2 Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. Reconsider the hypotheses and delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnostic value. Analyze the "diagnosticity" of the evidence and arguments--that is, identify which items are most helpful in judging the relative likelihood of the hypotheses. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected. Proceed by trying to disprove the hypotheses rather than prove them. Swarms An analysis of susan douglass essay narcissism as liberation without paying that tango without changes? Willard Zangwill. In other words, it has no diagnostic value. It is widely believed to help overcome cognitive biases , though there is a lack of strong empirical evidence to support this belief. The analyst also identifies milestones in the process that can serve as indicators in future analyses. As a general rule, the greater your level of uncertainty, or the greater the policy impact of your conclusion, the more alternatives you may wish to consider.

How Psychologists Define Intelligence Intelligence has been an important and controversial topic throughout psychology's history. Rather, it should accurately reflect your judgment of what is important and how these important factors relate to the probability of each hypothesis.

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